England areas that could face tougher coronavirus lockdowns under ‘three-tier’ system

England areas that could face tougher coronavirus lockdowns under ‘three-tier’ system

 

Large swathes of England may be on the brink of stricter lockdown restrictions – with pubs and restaurants made to close and people from different households banned from meeting.

Ministers grappling with rising Covid-19 infection rates are reportedly set to introduce a three-tier “traffic light” system next week following repeated criticism that existing rules are too complex.

Areas with the highest infection rates would be classed as Tier 3, and will face the harshest rules.

These are expected to include Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle, where the number of people testing positive have soared in the past two weeks.

Measures here are expected to include compulsory closure of hospitality venues such as pubs and restaurants, while mixing with other households won’t be allowed.

Tier 2 areas are also expected to be hit by a ban on meeting people you don’t live with, although pubs and restaurants would be allowed to stay open.

Places with lowest infection rates will still have to stick to the “rule of six” and 10pm curfews currently in place across England.

This has yet to be confirmed by the government, and it is not clear what criteria will be used to define the risk level in each level.

Last week the government’s Sage committee estimated that the R rate – which measures whether the virus is spreading – is between 1.2 and 1.6 in England, with the North East and London having the highest rates.

This means the number of cases will double every seven to eight days.

Tomorrow scientists will release their latest estimate.

Earlier today Dr Adam Kucharski, who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, warned that the daily death toll could be above 100 within a fortnight if changes are not made.

He told the BBC: “Deaths are now averaging over 50 a day; I think within the next couple of weeks we could quite well be seeing over a hundred a day.

“We are in a situation where cases are rising and they are going to continue to rise unless something changes.”

The government is reportedly on the brink of bringing in controversial new restrictions across parts of Northern England from Monday.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock last night told industry chiefs a large proportion of new cases are contracted in pubs and restaurants.

The move comes after Scottish First Minister Nicola Stugeon yesterday announced a clampdown on indoor drinking north of the border.

She said pubs in the central belt of the country will close completely for 16 days, while those in the rest of Scotland will have to serve alcohol outdoors.

It is not yet clear exactly which parts of the North of England will be affected and whether the closures will be total or partial.

A No10 source stressed the plans were not yet agreed by ministers, but they were widely leaked last night – prompting fury from northern leaders who were left in the dark.

Tier 1 is likely to be the current national rules for England, including the rule of six and 10pm pub curfew.

Tier 2 would reflect the current local lockdown rules and Tier 3 would go further than local lockdowns, closing pubs and restaurants.

Therefore if you’re currently not in a local lockdown, you could expect to be Tier 1 unless things get worse. And if you are in local lockdown, you might expect to be Tier 2 – again, unless things get worse.

Note: Our categories are based on high-risk areas being classed as having more than 50 cases per 100,000, medium-risk being 20 or more, and low-risk being below 20, which is not a government system.

Our categories ‘high risk’, ‘low risk’ and ‘medium risk’ do not correspond in any way to the planned Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 to be announced by the government.

This is partly because we’ve produced this list based only on cases per 100,000 people. Government officials also look at other factors, including hospitalisations, any specific outbreaks skewing the numbers, and the rate the virus is growing in the community.

The list of ‘high-risk’ areas with rates over 50 is now also so large, it’s safe to assume not all these areas could be put under Tier 3 by the government.

However, our list does give an idea of which areas are most at risk of becoming Tier 3 – in other words, the ones at the very top.

Latest Public Health England data shows: Infection rate per 100,000 in the week to October 4, number of new cases; infection rate a week earlier, number of new cases a week ago.

Knowsley 574.7 (867), 334.7 (505)

Liverpool 551.6 (2747), 342.3 (1705)

Manchester 541.5 (2994), 307.0 (1697)

Nottingham 496.8 (1654), 94.3 (314)

Newcastle upon Tyne 479.8 (1453), 298.9 (905)

Burnley 403.7 (359), 373.4 (332)

Leeds 363.5 (2883), 170.3 (1351)

Sheffield 358.2 (2095), 120.9 (707)

Sefton 350.6 (969), 226.8 (627)

Exeter 338.6 (445), 54.8 (72)

St. Helens 332.8 (601), 254.2 (459)

Halton 327.6 (424), 265.8 (344)

Rochdale 324.6 (722), 202.3 (450)

Preston 306.7 (439), 223.6 (320)

Salford 304.8 (789), 195.1 (505)

Pendle 299.6 (276), 255.1 (235)

Sunderland 285.6 (793), 215.7 (599)

Hyndburn 282.6 (229), 236.9 (192)

Bradford 282.0 (1522), 184.2 (994)

Bury 281.7 (538), 216.2 (413)

West Lancashire 280.8 (321), 147.0 (168)

Oldham 278.8 (661), 193.6 (459)

South Tyneside 266.9 (403), 221.9 (335)

Trafford 259.1 (615), 139.9 (332)

Wigan 257.1 (845), 159.7 (525)

Bolton 255.3 (734), 244.1 (702)

Middlesbrough 250.4 (353), 136.2 (192)

Rossendale 249.0 (178), 159.5 (114)

Blackburn with Darwen 248.5 (372), 181.0 (271)

Warrington 245.7 (516), 197.6 (415)

Hartlepool 243.4 (228), 153.7 (144)

Tameside 239.7 (543), 174.4 (395)

Wirral 234.9 (761), 193.5 (627)

Ribble Valley 234.9 (143), 121.5 (74)

Gateshead 232.1 (469), 162.3 (328)

Stockton-on-Tees 228.5 (451), 100.8 (199)

North Tyneside 226.5 (471), 156.3 (325)

Stockport 215.0 (631), 109.4 (321)

South Ribble 202.2 (224), 106.5 (118)

Rotherham 195.9 (520), 101.0 (268)

Barrow-in-Furness 193.9 (130), 107.4 (72)

County Durham 193.6 (1026), 110.5 (586)

York 192.3 (405), 72.6 (153)

Kirklees 186.5 (820), 118.5 (521)

Rushcliffe 181.2 (216), 48.7 (58)

Blackpool 177.8 (248), 91.8 (128)

Northumberland 177.4 (572), 170.6 (550)

Darlington 171.3 (183), 103.9 (111)

Redcar and Cleveland 169.2 (232), 70.7 (97)

Broxtowe 165.7 (189), 61.4 (70)

Calderdale 165.0 (349), 97.4 (206)

Chorley 164.1 (194), 82.9 (98)

Lancaster 162.3 (237), 75.3 (110)

Wakefield 156.2 (544), 86.1 (300)

Craven 155.8 (89), 138.3 (79)

Fylde 153.5 (124), 121.3 (98)

Birmingham 151.9 (1734), 147.7 (1687)

Barnsley 141.4 (349), 76.6 (189)

Doncaster 136.3 (425), 62.2 (194)

Cheshire East 135.1 (519), 61.2 (235)

Cheshire West and Chester 135.0 (463), 78.1 (268)

Leicester 129.0 (457), 111.5 (395)

High Peak 128.4 (119), 72.3 (67)

Oadby and Wigston 126.3 (72), 93.0 (53)

Wyre 125.8 (141), 91.0 (102)

Gedling 124.7 (147), 39.0 (46)

North East Derbyshire 123.2 (125), 50.3 (51)

Richmondshire 119.1 (64), 83.8 (45)

Newark and Sherwood 117.6 (144), 74.3 (91)

Walsall 117.3 (335), 83.4 (238)

Harrogate 114.4 (184), 65.9 (106)

Solihull 114.2 (247), 90.1 (195)

South Lakeland 113.2 (119), 47.6 (50)

Newcastle-under-Lyme 112.8 (146), 50.2 (65)

Sandwell 112.0 (368), 113.3 (372)

Oxford 110.9 (169), 61.0 (93)

Hambleton 108.1 (99), 57.9 (53)

East Riding of Yorkshire 106.7 (364), 49.5 (169)

Stafford 106.4 (146), 51.0 (70)

Bromsgrove 104.1 (104), 43.1 (43)

Redbridge 103.9 (317), 73.1 (223)

Richmond upon Thames 103.5 (205), 39.4 (78)

West Lindsey 103.5 (99), 26.1 (25)

Ryedale 102.9 (57), 36.1 (20)

Coventry 102.8 (382), 74.3 (276)

Charnwood 100.6 (187), 51.7 (96)

Ashfield 100.1 (128), 50.0 (64)

Hertsmere 99.1 (104), 32.4 (34)

Elmbridge 98.7 (135), 26.3 (36)

Erewash 94.5 (109), 39.0 (45)

Scarborough 93.8 (102), 47.8 (52)

Ealing 93.6 (320), 55.6 (190)

Hackney and City of London 92.5 (269), 55.0 (160)

Hull 92.4 (240), 35.4 (92)

Blaby 89.6 (91), 60.1 (61)

North Lincolnshire 87.6 (151), 47.6 (82)

Rutland 85.2 (34), 42.6 (17)

Bassetlaw 84.3 (99), 33.2 (39)

Haringey 84.1 (226), 40.9 (110)

Harrow 82.8 (208), 41.8 (105)

South Staffordshire 82.7 (93), 57.8 (65)

Great Yarmouth 82.5 (82), 63.4 (63)

Tower Hamlets 82.5 (268), 62.5 (203)

Lincoln 81.6 (81), 62.4 (62)

Lichfield 81.1 (85), 26.7 (28)

Rugby 80.8 (88), 53.2 (58)

East Northamptonshire 80.4 (76), 18.0 (17)

Slough 79.6 (119), 82.3 (123)

Selby 79.5 (72), 66.2 (60)

Barnet 79.3 (314), 43.2 (171)

Hounslow 79.2 (215), 57.5 (156)

Brentwood 77.9 (60), 35.1 (27)

Chesterfield 77.2 (81), 29.6 (31)

Windsor and Maidenhead 76.6 (116), 31.7 (48)

Melton 76.2 (39), 19.5 (10)

Uttlesford 75.6 (69), 49.3 (45)

East Hertfordshire 75.5 (113), 26.7 (40)

Derby 75.4 (194), 42.8 (110)

Amber Valley 74.9 (96), 53.1 (68)

Brent 74.9 (247), 50.6 (167)

Islington 74.2 (180), 42.9 (104)

Wolverhampton 73.7 (194), 83.2 (219)

Dudley 73.1 (235), 56.3 (181)

Three Rivers 72.9 (68), 37.5 (35)

Harborough 72.5 (68), 43.7 (41)

Hammersmith and Fulham 72.4 (134), 46.5 (86)

Waltham Forest 71.8 (199), 47.3 (131)

Kensington and Chelsea 71.7 (112), 23.7 (37)

Stratford-on-Avon 71.5 (93), 25.4 (33)

Lambeth 71.2 (232), 40.5 (132)

Hillingdon 70.4 (216), 57.4 (176)

Newham 70.2 (248), 66.3 (234)

South Kesteven 68.8 (98), 26.7 (38)

North East Lincolnshire 68.3 (109), 35.1 (56)

Kingston upon Thames 68.2 (121), 33.2 (59)

Bedford 68.1 (118), 47.9 (83)

St Albans 68.0 (101), 42.4 (63)

Enfield 68.0 (227), 42.5 (142)

Worcester 67.2 (68), 47.4 (48)

Hinckley and Bosworth 67.2 (76), 50.4 (57)

Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole 67.0 (265), 25.8 (102)

Bolsover 67.0 (54), 54.6 (44)

Nuneaton and Bedworth 67.0 (87), 48.5 (63)

Westminster 67.0 (175), 29.1 (76)

Guildford 66.4 (99), 24.2 (36)

Spelthorne 66.1 (66), 35.1 (35)

Epping Forest 66.1 (87), 51.6 (68)

Wandsworth 65.8 (217), 37.9 (125)

Waverley 65.7 (83), 34.8 (44)

Wyre Forest 65.2 (66), 52.3 (53)

South Derbyshire 64.3 (69), 36.4 (39)

South Bucks 64.2 (45), 42.8 (30)

Watford 64.2 (62), 43.5 (42)

Woking 63.5 (64), 36.7 (37)

Allerdale 63.4 (62), 44.0 (43)

Croydon 62.3 (241), 32.1 (124)

Mansfield 62.2 (68), 39.3 (43)

Epsom and Ewell 62.0 (50), 19.8 (16)

Basildon 62.0 (116), 30.4 (57)

Kettering 61.9 (63), 21.6 (22)

Bristol 61.1 (283), 27.6 (128)

Lewisham 60.5 (185), 34.0 (104)

Rushmoor 60.3 (57), 23.3 (22)

Stoke-on-Trent 60.1 (154), 49.5 (127)

Barking and Dagenham 59.7 (127), 62.0 (132)

Luton 59.6 (127), 62.0 (132)

Cannock Chase 59.5 (60), 33.7 (34)

Brighton and Hove 59.5 (173), 21.7 (63)

Chiltern 59.4 (57), 33.4 (32)

Runnymede 59.3 (53), 35.8 (32)

Warwick 59.1 (85), 37.6 (54)

Tamworth 58.7 (45), 18.3 (14)

Bath and North East Somerset 58.5 (113), 37.3 (72)

Mole Valley 58.5 (51), 12.6 (11)

Malvern Hills 58.5 (46), 34.3 (27)

Sevenoaks 58.0 (70), 15.7 (19)

Shropshire 57.6 (186), 42.4 (137)

Wychavon 57.2 (74), 34.0 (44)

Southwark 57.1 (182), 46.7 (149)

Staffordshire Moorlands 56.9 (56), 24.4 (24)

Dacorum 56.9 (88), 28.4 (44)

Peterborough 56.4 (114), 35.1 (71)

Havering 55.9 (145), 57.4 (149)

Daventry 55.8 (48), 25.6 (22)

Derbyshire Dales 55.3 (40), 15.2 (11)

South Gloucestershire 55.1 (157), 23.9 (68)

Redditch 54.0 (46), 48.1 (41)

Northampton 53.9 (121), 25.8 (58)

Bromley 53.9 (179), 27.1 (90)

North Warwickshire 53.6 (35), 41.4 (27)

Telford and Wrekin 53.4 (96), 43.9 (79)

North Kesteven 52.2 (61), 35.1 (41)

South Oxfordshire 52.1 (74), 12.7 (18)

Bexley 51.6 (128), 28.2 (70)

Surrey Heath 51.5 (46), 35.8 (32)

Wellingborough 51.4 (41), 27.6 (22)

Tunbridge Wells 51.4 (61), 19.4 (23)

Camden 51.1 (138), 27.0 (73)

East Staffordshire 50.9 (61), 33.4 (40)

Cherwell 50.5 (76), 16.6 (25)

South Cambridgeshire 50.3 (80), 20.7 (33)

Vale of White Horse 50.0 (68), 17.6 (24)

Tandridge 49.9 (44), 26.1 (23)

Copeland 49.9 (34), 39.6 (27)

Carlisle 49.7 (54), 46.9 (51)

Greenwich 49.0 (141), 36.5 (105)

Welwyn Hatfield 48.8 (60), 17.1 (21)

North Hertfordshire 48.7 (65), 19.5 (26)

North West Leicestershire 48.3 (50), 41.5 (43)

Winchester 47.3 (59), 16.8 (21)

Portsmouth 47.0 (101), 32.1 (69)

Gloucester 46.5 (60), 18.6 (24)

Cheltenham 46.4 (54), 29.2 (34)

Torbay 46.2 (63), 14.7 (20)

Fenland 46.1 (47), 9.8 (10)

Huntingdonshire 46.1 (82), 22.5 (40)

Horsham 45.9 (66), 20.2 (29)

Somerset West and Taunton 45.8 (71), 9.7 (15)

Corby 45.7 (33), 37.4 (27)

Chelmsford 45.4 (81), 20.2 (36)

Broxbourne 45.2 (44), 48.3 (47)

Wycombe 44.7 (78), 23.5 (41)

Tendring 43.7 (64), 11.6 (17)

Norwich 43.4 (61), 14.2 (20)

Hart 43.3 (42), 20.6 (20)

Teignbridge 43.2 (58), 11.2 (15)

Castle Point 43.2 (39), 33.2 (30)

Merton 42.6 (88), 26.1 (54)

Gravesham 42.1 (45), 20.6 (22)

Reading 42.0 (68), 29.7 (48)

Wokingham 41.5 (71), 28.6 (49)

Test Valley 41.2 (52), 13.5 (17)

Milton Keynes 40.5 (109), 24.9 (67)

East Hampshire 40.1 (49), 19.6 (24)

Southampton 40.0 (101), 19.0 (48)

Southend-on-Sea 39.3 (72), 31.1 (57)

Cambridge 39.3 (49), 23.2 (29)

Hastings 38.9 (36), 14.0 (13)

Thurrock 38.4 (67), 24.1 (42)

South Northamptonshire 38.1 (36), 18.0 (17)

North Somerset 37.2 (80), 27.4 (59)

Bracknell Forest 36.7 (45), 25.3 (31)

Swale 36.6 (55), 15.3 (23)

Eastbourne 36.6 (38), 15.4 (16)

West Berkshire 36.6 (58), 22.7 (36)

West Suffolk 36.3 (65), 8.9 (16)

Tewkesbury 35.8 (34), 17.9 (17)

Canterbury 35.7 (59), 24.8 (41)

Central Bedfordshire 35.0 (101), 23.6 (68)

Plymouth 34.7 (91), 23.3 (61)

East Suffolk 34.1 (85), 10.0 (25)

Aylesbury Vale 33.6 (67), 15.5 (31)

Sutton 33.4 (69), 24.2 (50)

Forest of Dean 33.4 (29), 20.7 (18)

Cotswold 33.4 (30), 11.1 (10)

Crawley 32.9 (37), 26.7 (30)

Babergh 32.6 (30), 6.5 (6)

Reigate and Banstead 32.3 (48), 15.5 (23)

East Devon 32.1 (47), 10.9 (16)

Eden 31.9 (17), 22.5 (12)

Mid Sussex 31.8 (48), 19.2 (29)

King’s Lynn and West Norfolk 31.7 (48), 9.9 (15)

South Holland 31.6 (30), 14.7 (14)

Mendip 31.1 (36), 19.9 (23)

Harlow 31.0 (27), 36.8 (32)

Wiltshire 30.8 (154), 15.2 (76)

West Oxfordshire 30.7 (34), 15.4 (17)

Colchester 30.3 (59), 13.9 (27)

Lewes 30.0 (31), 16.5 (17)

Boston 29.9 (21), 14.3 (10)

East Lindsey 29.6 (42), 14.1 (20)

Adur 29.5 (19), 15.6 (10)

Medway 29.4 (82), 17.6 (49)

South Norfolk 29.1 (41), 19.9 (28)

Tonbridge and Malling 28.8 (38), 12.9 (17)

West Devon 28.7 (16), 9.0 (5)

Dartford 28.4 (32), 32.9 (37)

New Forest 28.3 (51), 19.4 (35)

Broadland 28.3 (37), 7.6 (10)

Braintree 28.2 (43), 21.0 (32)

Chichester 28.1 (34), 19.8 (24)

Wealden 27.9 (45), 12.4 (20)

Maidstone 27.4 (47), 15.1 (26)

Stevenage 27.3 (24), 17.1 (15)

Basingstoke and Deane 27.2 (48), 12.5 (22)

Mid Suffolk 27.0 (28), 6.7 (7)

East Cambridgeshire 26.7 (24), 6.7 (6)

Swindon 26.6 (59), 18.9 (42)

Stroud 25.8 (31), 17.5 (21)

North Devon 25.7 (25), 12.4 (12)

Dorset 24.6 (93), 11.4 (43)

Arun 24.3 (39), 19.9 (32)

Ipswich 24.1 (33), 7.3 (10)

Eastleigh 24.0 (32), 10.5 (14)

Ashford 23.8 (31), 11.5 (15)

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 23.8 (136), 39.7 (227)

Breckland 23.6 (33), 10.0 (14)

South Somerset 23.2 (39), 11.9 (20)

Havant 23.0 (29), 22.2 (28)

Worthing 22.6 (25), 29.8 (33)

Thanet 21.8 (31), 9.9 (14)

Sedgemoor 21.1 (26), 16.2 (20)

Rochford 20.6 (18), 11.4 (10)

Herefordshire 19.7 (38), 13.0 (25)

Dover 19.5 (23), 6.8 (8)

Mid Devon 19.4 (16), 9.7 (8)

South Hams 18.4 (16), 18.4 (16)

Gosport 17.7 (15), 14.1 (12)

Maldon 16.9 (11), 23.1 (15)

Torridge 16.1 (11), 8.8 (6)

Folkestone and Hythe 15.0 (17), 13.3 (15)

North Norfolk 14.3 (15), 6.7 (7)

Rother 12.5 (12), 16.7 (16)

Fareham 12.0 (14), 13.8 (16)

Isle of Wight 11.3 (16), 11.3 (16)

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